Macro and Currency Outlook for Q2 2019
Claire Dissaux, Mena Bassily | April 7, 2019
We are pleased to share our latest Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights document, which examines several themes including:
- Global growth is slipping, leading to a potential re-pricing of interest rate markets as they look for elevated odds of a recession.
- Despite the dovish shift from the Fed, we only see small downside risks to the US dollar, as higher inflation expectations are still seen as positive for growth.
- The absence of a rebound in hard data will further impact rate hike expectations for 2020-21 in the Euro area.
- Norwegian krone is likely to see benefit from another potential rate hike in Q2 2019.
- In EM, country-specific opportunities are favoured and we look for outperformance of the Mexican peso, Russian ruble and South African rand and downward pressures on Asian currencies such as the Singapore dollar.