Macro and Currency Outlook for Q2 2019

Claire Dissaux, Mena Bassily | April 7, 2019

We are pleased to share our latest Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights document, which examines several themes including:

  • Global growth is slipping, leading to a potential re-pricing of interest rate markets as they look for elevated odds of a recession.
  • Despite the dovish shift from the Fed, we only see small downside risks to the US dollar, as higher inflation expectations are still seen as positive for growth.
  • The absence of a rebound in hard data will further impact rate hike expectations for 2020-21 in the Euro area.
  • Norwegian krone is likely to see benefit from another potential rate hike in Q2 2019.
  • In EM, country-specific opportunities are favoured and we look for outperformance of the Mexican peso, Russian ruble and South African rand and downward pressures on Asian currencies such as the Singapore dollar.