Macro and Currency Outlook for Q3 2019

Claire Dissaux, Meena Bassily | July 10, 2019

This document contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team (Claire Dissaux and Meena Bassily) as of 10 July and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers.

Millennium Global is pleased to share the latest Macro and Currency Outlook Highlights document, which examines several themes including:

  • Global growth is expected to slip below potential amid trade policy uncertainty, deteriorating business sentiment and weak industrial activity.
  • US growth looks set to slow down below potential and the upward USD cycle may have finally run its course.
  • The ECB may become more dovish given downside risks to growth, but EUR should stay resilient.
  • JPY looks attractive as a safe haven, and is cheap against vs. USD.
  • NOK and SEK may outperform EUR, while we see building downside risk for GBP. We now see CAD as fairly valued vs. USD.
  • In EM, the outlook for INR is positive given increasing foreign flows into local bonds, and we still think RUB has an attractive valuation.