Macro and Currency Outlook for Q4 2019
Claire Dissaux | October 10, 2019
The document contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team (Claire Dissaux) as of 10 October and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers.
Millennium Global is pleased to share its latest Macro and Currency Quarterly Outlook document, which examines several themes including:
- Activity weakness is spreading from trade and investment to employment and consumption in developed markets.
- With reduced US growth outperformance vs. other DM, fading fiscal support and likely 2 additional interest rate cuts by the Fed in Q4, the USD looks vulnerable.
- EUR looks to remain range bound in Q4, but downside risks could be revived in case of additional easing in December
- CHF & JPY have potential to appreciate vs. USD in a global growth slowdown.
- The deterioration in cyclical data is yet to be priced into SEK in our view. AUD should outperform CAD, given relative risks of repricing of the interest rate outlook.
- In EM, INR And BRL offer positive stories as growth expectations look set to be supported by central bank easing whereas we see TRY as vulnerable to monetary policy mistake.